Choose your settings

Choose your language
Saskatchewan budget

Saskatchewan: Budget 2025 - Back in Black… If No Tariff Attack

March 19, 2025
Laura Gu, Senior Economist • Kari Norman, Economist

Saskatchewan’s fiscal year 2025–26 (FY2026) forecasts a return to surpluses after the FY2025 deficit, with improved revenue under a no-tariff scenario offsetting incremental new spending as the government fulfills its campaign promises. The updated plan includes cost-of-living relief and targeted funding for healthcare, education, and public safety.

The optimistic revenue outlook is supported by strong economic growth assumptions, with real growth expected to accelerate to 1.8% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, driven by robust capital investment and resilient population growth. Oil price assumptions are less conservative than those in Alberta's budget.

Significant downside risks are heightened, with potential US tariffs reducing provincial revenue by up to $1.4B. We consider this a worst-case scenario.

The net debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a relatively flat trajectory, well below that of all jurisdictions except Alberta.

The considerable impact of tariffs will likely require a response from the government of a trade-oriented province like Saskatchewan, though specific measures are yet to be announced due to the fluidity of the situation. Although substantial downside risks are not reflected in the baseline, the strong financial stance and responsible spending outlined in this budget position the province well to address the potential impact of tariffs.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.