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Economic News

Quebec: Modest Job Gains and Rising Unemployment in October

November 8, 2024
Florence Jean-Jacobs
Principal Economist

Highlights

  • Quebec added 6,500 jobs in October. While this is rather modest growth compared to September (21,700) and August (14,700), it is the third consecutive monthly increase.
  • At the same time, the number of unemployed individuals jumped by 10,000, raising the unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.7%. Quebec still has the lowest unemployment rate in the country.
  • The unemployment rate for young people ages 15 to 24 is gradually recovering and dropped from 10.0% to 9.5%. 
  • Montreal recorded the highest unemployment rate, at 8.4%, while rates were 3% or less in the Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent, Côte-Nord and Nord-du-Québec regions (3-month moving averages).
  • Hours worked increased 2.7% overall in Quebec, compared to October 2023 (see table). 

Comments

While its may have lost some of its momentum in October, Quebec's job market is still demonstrating resilience. True, job creation isn't keeping pace with the record surge in the working-age population—a surge that shows no signs of easing up for now. But Quebec's economy has been steadily adding jobs since August, with a particular boost from the private sector. The manufacturing sector has created 25,800 net jobs in the past 6 months. The strong increase in hours worked is also a positive sign. This is on top of rather favourable outlooks for the housing sector External link., GDP External link. and consumer confidence, buoyed by the Bank of Canada rate cuts.

Implications

Before we celebrate, we need to remember we'll be facing headwinds soon. Donald Trump's election in the United States is stirring up concerns about Quebec exports in the medium term. While the president-elect's proposed tariffs will take time to implement External link., and may not take effect until late 2025, they could jeopardize the advances made by the manufacturing sector and related industries (transportation, wholesale). Business confidence indicators may also suffer, since they're already advancing more slowly than household indicators (see Desjardins Leading Index External link.).

 

What's more, announcements by both the federal and provincial governments to cut immigration may temper economic growth in 2025. On the other hand, they should also promote a better balance in the labour market, allowing job growth to better keep up with population growth. 

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.