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Economic News

Quebec: Modest GDP Increase in August

November 25, 2025
Florence Jean-Jacobs
Principal Economist

Highlights

  • Real GDP at basic prices rose by 0.1% in Quebec in August. This marks the second consecutive monthly increase since the June trough, a trend that contrasts with Canada External link. as a whole, where real GDP fell by 0.3% in August.
  • The manufacturing sector posted its first gain in five months, advancing by 0.5%. Primary metal manufacturing (which includes aluminum and steel) recorded a notable 7.0% surge.
  • The sectors contributing most to August’s growth were retail trade, public services (public administration, health, and education), manufacturing, and construction. Meanwhile, contractions in other goods-producing sectors slowed overall GDP growth—particularly electricity generation and distribution, mining, as well as agriculture and forestry.
  • For the first eight months of the year, Quebec’s GDP growth stands at 1.0% compared to the same period in 2024.

Comments

Despite modest gains in July and August (0.1% each), the third quarter is shaping up to be significantly better than the second, which saw a 2.5% annualized quarterly decline in real GDP at basic prices. Nevertheless, negative base effects from late Q2 suggest that overall growth for the third quarter will likely be close to zero.

Implications

While it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, Quebec’s economy appears to be returning to a growth path—albeit modest and subject to considerable uncertainty stemming from trade relations with the US.

Following the deep slump in the second quarter, the province remains vulnerable to further volatility as 2025 draws to a close. Moreover, the outlook varies widely External link. depending on whether industries are affected by US sector-specific tariffs.

Still, the notable rebound in manufacturing in August, the solid pace of construction GDP, and continued strength in retail trade are encouraging signs for the months ahead. September and October External link. employment data also point to an improving labor market, suggesting that businesses are showing some confidence in the recovery. As a result, the fourth quarter could mark a more convincing return to positive growth territory for Quebec’s economy.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.