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Economic News

Quebec: Job Market Rebounds Amid Temporary Hiring

May 9, 2025
Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist

Highlights

  • After two months of decline, the Quebec job market returned to growth, with the addition of 18,300 jobs.
  • The unemployment rate nevertheless rose to 6.0%, reaching its highest level since July 2021. This was partly due to an increase in the participation rate from 65.0% to 65.3%. The rise in unemployment was most notable in the 15-24 age group, from 8.8% to 10.9%.
  • Private-sector employment fell for the first time since July 2024 (-5,300), while public-sector employment rose by 10,800. As the Labour Force Survey was conducted during the week of advance polling for the last federal election, some of these jobs are temporary in nature.
  • In terms of administrative regions, the unemployment rate has risen over the past 12 months in all administrative regions, with the exception of Estrie, Côte-Nord and Nord-du-Québec. The most pronounced increase was in Abitibi-Témiscamingue (+2.5 percentage points), Mauricie (+2.4), and Centre-du-Québec (+2.0 ).

Comments

The Labour Force Survey was conducted during the week of April 13, two weeks after “Liberation Day” and as Canadians were preparing to head to advanced polling stations (more than a quarter of voters took advantage of this option).

In short, it was a little early to see the impact of the White House announcements, but the figures were also affected by election-related increases in temporary employment.

The composition of employment growth was otherwise mixed. Full-time jobs contributed to the overall increase, but the private sector declined in favor of the self-employed, a usual sign of a sluggish labour market. The number of hours worked also fell, posting the steepest annual decline since the pandemic. Wage growth accelerated slightly in April, rising to 3.0%, compared with an inflation rate of 1.9% in March (the most recent data available).

Implications

The rebound in employment in April certainly contrasts with the prevailing uncertainty, but once we take into account the temporary nature of many of the public-sector jobs added, it's clear that we're dealing with a virtually stagnant job market (net creation of 3,400 jobs excluding public administration).

The coming months will provide further clues as to its direction. Trade tensions with the US are beginning to show up in the expected sectors: manufacturing lost 7,900 jobs in April, and wholesale and retail trade posted a decline of 11,600 positions.

We continue to expect the unemployment rate to rise over the course of the year, approaching 7% in the final quarter of 2025.

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