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Economic News

Real GDP Grew 0.3% in July

October 29, 2024
Hélène Bégin
Principal Economist

Highlights

  • After stalling in June, Quebec's real GDP bounced back with gains of 0.3% in July.
  • This is slightly faster than Canada's 0.2% growth in July.
  • For the first seven months of 2024, Quebec's real GDP was 0.8% higher than it was over the same period in 2023—Canada's cumulative growth over that same period was just 0.1%.
  • More than half of the main industrial sectors posted gains in July. (See table 1 for more details.)
  • Output of goods was up 0.2% in July, while output in the services-producing industries was up 0.4%.

Comments

Real GDP grew a little faster than expected in July, largely due to a rally in the service sector. Strong wholesale and retail trade both contributed to this performance. Inflation is under control and interest rates are going down. These are good news for consumers, and household confidence has indeed been rising for several months now. The labour market is also improving, according to a recent analysis External link., and hiring rose for the second straight month in September.

While goods output rose 0.2%, several industries are on a downward trend, including utilities, manufacturing and construction. In all of these sectors, cumulative production since the start of the year has dropped compared to the same period in 2023. All the same, small business confidence External link. is recovering, which suggests that businesses won't have to wait much longer before feeling the effects of Quebec's 2024 return to economic growth.

Implications

While real GDP made solid gains in July, this growth largely came from consumer spending. The goods-producing sector is still a bit shaky. All the same, many indicators suggest that Quebec's economy is still looking good. The economy should continue to grow in the coming months. There are still a number of global uncertainties to contend with, though, and our recent analysis External link. suggests that the result of the US presidential election will have a significant effect on Canada's economy—and Quebec's as well.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.