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Economic News

Quebec: Unemployment Rate Declines in October Amid Shrinking Labour Force

November 7, 2025
Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist

Highlights

  • Quebec added 11,500 jobs in October, offsetting the losses recorded in September (‑4,700). Since January, net job creation has reached 31,400 positions (graph 1).
  • The unemployment rate declined from 5.7% to 5.3%, the lowest in the country. The drop is also partly due to a decrease in the labour force (‑10,700). This is the lowest rate recorded in 2025, matching February's, and similar to levels last seen in May 2024.
  • Full-time employment declined by 8,700 in October and is down 15,700 since the start of the year. In contrast, private sector job growth was solid, with 17,500 positions added, bringing the cumulative increase to +4,100.
  • The finance, wholesale and retail trade, and educational services sectors posted notable gains. In contrast, accommodation and food services, professional services, and public administration saw the largest declines (table 1). Manufacturing continued its upward trend for a third consecutive month (+4,000), bringing its year-to-date increase to +3,600.
  • Unemployment remains higher in major urban centres: Montréal (8.0%), Outaouais (7.6%), and Laval (6.9%). In Montréal’s case, this represents a notable improvement from the peak of 9.4% recorded in August. In contrast, ten regions report unemployment rates below 4.5%, particularly in manufacturing- and resource-oriented areas such as Chaudière‑Appalaches (3.0%), Centre‑du‑Québec (3.6%), and Saguenay–Lac‑Saint‑Jean (3.9%).

Comments

Early fourth-quarter data point to some momentum in Quebec. While full-time employment remains a weak spot, labour market resilience is evident across regions and sectors. Wage growth has stayed strong, reaching 4.3% year-over-year—the fastest pace in twelve months. This momentum may be linked to the stagnation in the population aged 15 and over (+400 in October), a labour force that has remained flat since the beginning of the year, and employment growth that continues to outpace demographic gains since 2022 (graph 2). In the current climate of uncertainty, this suggests that labour supply constraints are a greater drag on economic performance than weak demand—at least outside Quebec’s more urban regions.

Implications

There’s little to criticize in this morning’s labour market data. The strength of employment aligns with our view that Quebec’s economy returned to growth in the second half of the year, avoiding a technical recession.

 

More broadly, the easing of demographic pressures appears to have been well timed with the economic slowdown, helping to contain upward pressure on the unemployment rate. With most regions still operating near full employment, the new permanent immigration targets announced this week by the provincial government appear aligned with the reality that labour needs will remain difficult to meet in many parts of Quebec.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.