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Quebec budget

Quebec: A Cautious Update Ahead of an Election Year

November 25, 2025
Jimmy Jean, Vice-President, Chief Economist and Strategist
Sonny Scarfone, Principal Economist

Highlights

  • As somewhat expected External link., Quebec’s government deficit has been revised downward, from $13.6B to $12.4B after contributions to the Generations Fund (1.9% of GDP). The accounting deficit now stands at $9.9B (1.5% of GDP).
  • Revenue has been revised upward by $2.4B and is now expected to grow by 1.7% this year, reaching $158.7B in 2025–26.
  • Spending for the fiscal year is up by $861M, reaching $166.6B, a 3.4% increase compared to 2024–25.
  • Real GDP growth for 2025 has been revised downward, from 1.1% to 0.9%. However, it remains above our forecast of 0.7%, supported by the still modest growth observed so far in the third quarter External link..
  • Quebec’s financing program for 2025–26 is set at $24.3B, $5.4B less than estimated when the budget was tabled in March 2025. This decrease is partly due to the use of pre financing in 2024–25 and transactions related to credit policy. In addition, extending the use of the Generations Fund for another year to repay $2.5B in borrowings will reduce financing needs in 2026–27 to $34.1B.
  • However, no information has been provided on the fiscal measures that will need to be identified starting in 2027–28 to return to a balanced budget by 2029–30, even though program spending is expected to grow by less than 2% from this fiscal year onward. Fiscal flexibility still appears quite limited.
  • All in all, this economic update outlines a relatively cautious plan that doesn’t appear to overspend ahead of next fall’s provincial election. Credit rating agencies are unlikely to raise any concerns about the overall content of the update.
  • From an economic policy standpoint, the government appears to be following in the federal government’s footsteps—a vision outlined earlier this fall in its document Le pouvoir québécois [in French only] External link.. However, there’s little certainty that these measures will deliver the intended results, particularly when it comes to boosting investment and productivity. In this regard, transparent and regular reporting on the outcomes of these initiatives would be desirable.

PDF Publication

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Quebec: A Cautious Update Ahead of an Election Year (PDF, 439 KB)
NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.