Ontario Housing Outlook: Is the Heartland Province Still a Place to Live?

Highlights

• Ontario housing starts are forecast to rebound to about 71,500 units in 2026, after a 16% decline in 2025. However, homebuilding is expected to remain well below pre‑2023 levels, with construction tilted toward purpose‑built rentals. Resale activity should strengthen, with home sales expected to rise 8.4% in 2026 following a 5.6% drop this year. Prices will likely make a modest recovery while remaining below the 2022 peak.
• Toronto’s housing market has shifted decisively in favour of buyers, with resale prices down roughly 20% from their peak in early 2022. With condo presales at multi‑decade lows, we’ll likely see a sharp slowdown in future supply.
• Housing in Hamilton and Southwestern Ontario has remained resilient despite trade‑related headwinds. Relative affordability has helped Hamilton attract migrants from Toronto. Windsor’s rental market and home selling prices have held steady despite auto‑sector uncertainty.
• The Niagara Region’s home market is outperforming—with housing starts up 18% in 2025—supported by tourism, a flourishing wine industry and a smaller reliance on trade-exposed manufacturing. It has achieved one of the lowest unemployment and financial insecurity rates among Ontario cities. 
• Ottawa’s housing market remains stable—but looming cuts to the federal public service pose a significant risk to demand starting in 2026.
• Northern Ontario continues to lead on affordability and growth, with the housing markets in Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Sault Ste. Marie being propped up by mining‑driven job creation, low unemployment and a slow but steady increase in home sales.