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Nova Scotia: Budget 2025 - Looking Past the Surplus

February 18, 2025
Laura Gu, Senior Economist • Kari Norman, Economist • LJ Valencia, Economic Analyst

While Nova Scotia’s Budget 2025 lifted its spending plan on the back of recent revenue windfalls, it continues to project deficits over much of the planning horizon. The plan includes a $200M contingency in each year of the planning horizon to address ongoing uncertainties related to US tariffs.

The current consolidation plan includes a rapid reduction in the deficit and eventually a balanced budget before the contingency by FY29. However, this rests upon somewhat optimistic economic assumptions—the province anticipates robust revenue growth to offset minimal spending increases over the medium term.

Despite a better starting point, wider deficits and a large capital spending program are expected to drive the net debt-to-GDP ratio sharply upward, reaching over 40% by FY29.

Borrowing requirements before contingency are now projected to total $3.0B in FY26, $3.5B in FY27 and $3.9B in FY28—a total of $2.4B more than the last budget’s projection over the three-year horizon—and $2.6B in FY29.

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Nova Scotia: Budget 2025 - Looking Past the Surplus (PDF, 407 KB)
NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.