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Manitoba budget

Manitoba: Budget 2024 - New Spending Pressures Drive Deeper Deficits

April 2, 2024
Marc Desormeaux, Principal Economist • Kari Norman, Economist

Manitoba’s 2024 Budget—the first under the current New Democratic Party (NDP) administration—forecasts larger-than-previously anticipated deficits for the next three fiscal years. In line with last year’s NDP election platform, a return to balance is expected in fiscal year 2027–28 (FY2028).

Consistent with larger forecast capital expenditures and deficits, gross provincial borrowing requirement projections were revised higher, to $6.2B in FY2025, $5.8B in FY2026, and $4.7B in FY2027. These figures represent respective increases of $0.9B, $0.1B and $0.3B versus Budget 2023 plans.

New policy was largely incremental and focused on healthcare and affordability. Measures including a new Homeowner's Affordability Tax Credit, Renters Tax Credit, and an extension of the gas tax cut.

Budget 2024 clearly shows a deterioration in Manitoba’s fiscal position relative to prior projections (as we’ve seen in most provinces so far this spring) and attaining fiscal targets will require outer-year spending restraint.

However, Manitoba’s broad industrial base remains an advantage. This should serve the province well as the economy slows in the quarters ahead, as well as over the coming years as it seeks to return to the black.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.