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Economic Viewpoint

Which Sectors of the Canadian Economy Are Most Vulnerable to Trump’s Tariffs? A 10-Month Status Update

November 13, 2025
Florence Jean-Jacobs, Principal Economist • Samuel Turcotte, Analyst

When Donald Trump was sworn in as US president in January, we analyzed the potential risks his tariff threats posed to various Canadian industries. Nearly 10 months later, many of those risks have materialized, while a few have intensified. Luckily, some industries have managed to avoid the worst of tariffs.

As feared, manufacturers of primary metals, such as steel and aluminum, and wood products are highly vulnerable to tariffs, and the transportation and wholesale sectors are feeling the effects of the reduction in international trade.

Some industries now appear more vulnerable than initially expected. These include motor vehicle manufacturing, canola production and forestry and logging.   

The unexpected exemption of CUSMA-compliant products from the blanket IEEPA tariff on Canadian goods has made many sectors far less vulnerable. Several manufacturing segments exempt from sector-specific tariffs have proven more resilient than expected. So has the agricultural sector. 

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.