An Unexpected Opportunity to Reverse Canada’s Brain Drain

Since the Trump administration took power, American universities have been subjected to treatment that has weakened their position in the global scientific ecosystem. Cuts to federal funding for research, restrictions on grant criteria and a more restrictive policy on international students and researchers are creating a climate of uncertainty and withdrawal. Higher education in the US is also becoming increasingly politicized, undermining the foundations of academic freedom.

Meanwhile, China is pursuing the opposite strategy. It is ramping up budgets, investing in pure research, developing its university infrastructure and attracting or educating a growing percentage of the world’s researchers. This shift of the world’s scientific centre of gravity away from the United States is accelerating.

Canada occupies an enviable position in this new environment. It’s seen as an open country with high-quality academic institutions. In fact, Times Higher Education ranks three of Canada’s universities among the world’s top 50 External link.. Up to now, Canadian campuses have been relatively unaffected by the ideological tensions afflicting their US counterparts. In addition, the Liberal government’s campaign platform alluded to investments in innovation, patient capital and research corridors. These are all positive signals that run counter to the more anti-intellectual trends observed among our neighbours to the south.

But does that mean we can expect the US’s brain drain to turn into Canada’s massive brain gain? There’s no guarantee. As McGill University Provost Christopher Manfredi has pointed out External link., recent policy decisions, including caps on international student admissions, have diminished Canada’s appeal for international students. International students are a significant source of funding for Canadian universities. They don’t just pay higher tuition fees than Canadian students, they also account for a substantial share of students in graduate programs. Our report on Canada’s youth External link. showed that immigrants represent nearly three quarters of graduates from master’s or doctoral programs in key fields such as engineering and computer science.

They are actively involved in producing scientific output, burnish the international reputation of Canada’s universities and contribute more than $30 billion a year to the Canadian economy External link.. Cutting down on their numbers directly compromises the vitality of research programs.

All of these factors underline the need to avoid making impulsive decisions based on temporary political pressures and to articulate an approach that aligns demographic growth targets with wealth creation objectives, as we External link. and others (in French only) External link. have argued. In short, we need to quickly find solutions, especially for student housing External link., which is particularly well suited to increasing density.

But even though conditions aren’t as attractive as they could be, all is not lost. In particular, Canada can target Canadian researchers currently working in the United States. The 10,000 PhDs Project, a study that tracked the employment status of everyone who earned a doctorate from the University of Toronto between 2000 and 2015, showed that a significant share of Canadian PhDs—up to 17%—are working in the United States.

Eighty-three percent of them said they wanted to return to Canada in the medium term. But, in order to return, they’d need adequate research infrastructure, good career prospects and an environment that helps them pursue their scientific goals.

A targeted strategy to make it easier for these researchers to come home may be more effective and affordable than attracting researchers without Canadian roots. That said, Canada will have to compete—even for its own talent—with major European universities, which are already actively recruiting in the US. China, whose latest five-year plan included the explicit goal of reducing its dependence on foreign technology, is also stepping up efforts to bring its scientists back home.

Canada should therefore focus its attention where it has a concrete comparative advantage. It already has a global reputation in areas such as the responsible development of artificial intelligence, life sciences and even clean technology.

The turmoil in US academia therefore represents a golden opportunity for Canada. If Canada wants to maintain or even increase its ability to innovate in a more fragmented world, it will have to create the conditions for a new scientific boom, quickly adapt its immigration system and actively recruit Canadian expats. The fact that our prime minister has a doctorate from one of the world’s most prestigious universities already sends a message to the international scientific community that’s diametrically opposed to the one they’re getting from Washington. But that won’t be enough, at least not on its own.

We can’t wrap up this week’s note without touching on a completely different topic. The federal government’s decision not to publish a budget in 2025, despite the wide-ranging campaign promises made in April, is a regrettable one. In the world of fiscal policy, budgets are a sacred ritual, and even more so after an election. The budget is where promises are converted into clear, quantified and prioritized choices. In 2020, the decision to make an exception to this rule was mostly justified, given the extreme uncertainty over public health. But it’s not justified now, regardless of what happens with the trade war.

In a climate where spending pressures—for housing, defence and infrastructure—are expected to be high, the public has the right to see an updated road map that separates campaign promises from government priorities. This need for transparency is all the more pressing as markets and rating agencies will be paying particularly close attention to public finances in advanced countries. Canada built the credibility needed to earn its AAA rating based on the consistency and rigour of its fiscal institutions and processes. In this climate, postponing the budget weakens that signal at a time when it’s one of Canada’s best assets.