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Economic Viewpoint

Having Truck and Trade with the Good Ole US of A

Which Provinces Are Most Exposed to Potential US Tariffs?

November 21, 2024
Randall Bartlett
Senior Director of Canadian Economics
  • With the Republican sweep of the presidency and Congress now confirmed, higher tariffs are widely expected. This has weighed heavily on our economic outlook for Canada.
  • But Canadian provinces are highly diverse in their economic drivers, and some will be more vulnerable to US tariffs than others. For instance, we expect energy products to be largely exempt from tariffs, which would be a lucky break for Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. As a centre of oil refining, New Brunswick may also be spared the worst ravages of higher tariffs.
  • With their highly diversified economies and close ties to the US market, Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba may not be so lucky. The same is true, albeit to a lesser extent, for British Columbia, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.
  • While diplomacy may help to carve out some tariff exemptions, the most important takeaway from the latest round of US-driven global trade dysfunction on the horizon is that trade diversification is key to mitigating the risks of any one country’s policies.
NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.