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Economic Viewpoint

Reading the Signals: Looking past the Fog Surrounding the US Economy

November 3, 2025
Francis Généreux
Principal Economist

The US government shutdown that has now lasted for a little over a month is interfering with our assessment of US economic conditions. First, the shutdown is directly and indirectly affecting the economy itself. Second, indicators usually published by the US federal government haven’t been released, which is also affecting data from other sources. Based on the economic indicators that are still being published, we can conclude that growth in the United States remains relatively stable. Aside from the direct but temporary effects of the shutdown, there do not appear to be any major shifts in the economic outlook.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.